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Bessent: Iran Will Have ‘Nothing to Trade’ Within Two Weeks as Hormuz Oil Flows Again

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Iran is about to run out of oil to sell. In an interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures on September 27, he predicted that once its last cargoes reach China, Tehran will be finished as an oil seller: “They will have nothing to trade for anything, probably within the next two weeks.”

The prediction came one day after President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and it captures the administration’s case in a sentence: the regime that tried to choke the world’s most important oil chokepoint is now the one being choked.

“Then they will have nothing”

Bessent estimated that about 15 million barrels of Iranian oil remain to be delivered, mostly to China, while American forces blockade Iran’s ports. “They are going to make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then they will have nothing,” he said, according to Iran International’s account of the interview.

He described the regime in blunt terms: “They are isolated from the world. They’re a pariah state.”

That 15 million figure is itself a sign of how fast the squeeze is working. In early September, according to Iran International, Bessent had put the volume of Iranian oil still waiting for Chinese buyers at about 30 million barrels. By his own figures, that backlog has been cut roughly in half in three weeks, with the blockade standing in the way of new cargoes.

The oil is moving, just not Iran’s

The other half of Bessent’s argument is about who is still shipping. Iran’s attacks and threats drastically reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil. But Bessent said the flow has largely come back under American protection. “We’re averaging now 15 to 22 million barrels a day,” he said, compared with about 20 million barrels a day before the conflict, according to Fox News.

He summed it up like a scoreboard: “The score is the United States, one billion — more than one billion barrels have gotten out — Iran, zero.”

Other officials have offered more conservative numbers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that average flows were running at “almost 13 million barrels a day,” with one day the previous week topping 20 million, according to Iran International. Iran International also reported that U.S. forces had helped more than 2,000 commercial vessels transit the strait. Whichever daily figure is closer, the direction is the same: the Gulf’s oil is getting out, and Iran’s is not.

Operation Economic Outcast

The pressure campaign has a name. On August 24, Treasury launched what it called Operation Economic Outcast, a whole-of-government effort that Bessent described as an economic D-Day. The Treasury Department’s announcement said the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iran’s nuclear and missile procurement, cyber operations and oil revenue networks, and opened the door to sanctions on foreign companies in Iran’s digital-asset, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors.

“Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone,” Bessent said at the launch. “Those who tether themselves to Tehran should expect to share in the isolation of a withering regime.”

The damage shows up in Iran’s currency. On the day the operation launched, the Associated Press reported that the rial had fallen to a record low of 2.02 million to the U.S. dollar. By late September, Iran International reported, it was still trading at record lows. Iranian industry is feeling it too: the same outlet reported year-on-year production drops of 25 percent for refrigerators, 36 percent for televisions and 42 percent for washing machines.

Bessent said the point of the campaign is to make sure Iran actually honors the terms of any future agreement, noting that Tehran “did not stick to the MOU.” If there is a new deal, which he said is up to President Trump, Iran will stick to it this time “because they are on their knees.”

Trump says no to Tehran’s offer

The interview followed a diplomatic move by Iran at the United Nations General Assembly. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had sent a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that would start a seven-day countdown to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and pausing regional fighting, followed by wider talks, according to Reuters reporting carried by Al-Monitor. Iran wanted the U.S. naval blockade lifted, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would show no flexibility on its uranium enrichment.

Trump turned it down on Saturday, September 26. “I reject their proposal,” he told reporters at the White House. Iran wants the strait reopened quickly, he said, “because they’re losing so badly,” adding, “We’re winning tremendously.” In a phone call with Axios, as reported by Fox News, Trump said the Iranians “overplayed their hand” and that he expects more talks. “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make,” he said. “It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago.”

That is the heart of it. A year ago Iran had leverage. Today it is offering to reopen a strait that, by Bessent’s account, is already open, in exchange for relief from a blockade that is draining its last revenue.

What comes next

The administration’s bet is that time is on America’s side. If Bessent’s math is right, the final barrels of Iranian crude will be delivered by mid-October, and the regime will be left with a collapsing currency, idle factories and no oil income while its rivals’ tankers sail past under American escort. With Trump rejecting Tehran’s terms and saying the deal on offer is one he might have taken a year ago, the pressure is not likely to ease soon.

For a regime that spent decades threatening to hold the world’s energy supply hostage, it is a remarkable reversal.

Iran tried to hold the world’s oil hostage, and now the world’s oil is flowing while the ayatollahs watch their last barrels sail away.

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